Determinants of Economic Growth in a Resource-Dependent Economy: An Endogenous Approach to Libya (1990–2023)

المؤلفون

  • باسم عقاب قسم الاقتصاد، كلية الاقتصاد العجيلات ، جامعة الزاوية المؤلف
  • باسم الرتيمي قسم الاقتصاد، كلية الاقتصاد الزاوية ، جامعة الزاوية المؤلف

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.65405/xz15vf07

الكلمات المفتاحية:

النمو الداخلي، نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL)، الاقتصاد الليبي، الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر، محددات الاقتصاد الكلي، لعنة الموارد

الملخص

تبحث هذه الدراسة في المحددات الأساسية للنمو الاقتصادي في ليبيا خلال الفترة من 1990 إلى 2023 من منظور نظرية النمو الداخلي. وباستخدام نهج اختبار الحدود لنموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL)، يقيّم البحث تجريبياً الآثار قصيرة وطويلة الأجل لمتغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي — بما في ذلك الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر (FDI)، والتضخم، والإنفاق الحكومي، والانفتاح التجاري، وإجمالي تكوين رأس المال الثابت (GFCF)، وأسعار النفط — على نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي. وتكشف النتائج التجريبية أنه في حين أن الانفتاح التجاري وأسعار النفط يمارسان تأثيراً إيجابياً ذا دلالة إحصائية على التوسع الاقتصادي، فإن متغيرات مثل الإنفاق الحكومي، وإجمالي تكوين رأس المال الثابت، والاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر تُظهر معاملات سلبية على عكس المتوقع (غير بديهية). وتؤكد هذه النتائج على أوجه القصور الهيكلية الحادة، والضعف المؤسسي، وظاهرة "لعنة الموارد" السائدة في الاقتصاد الليبي. وتخلص الورقة إلى أنه من أجل تحقيق نمو داخلي مستدام، يجب على ليبيا تجاوز اعتمادها المفرط على عائدات الهيدروكربونات (النفط والغاز) من خلال تحسين الجودة المؤسسية، وإعادة توجيه الإنفاق العام نحو رأس المال البشري والبحث والتطوير (R&D)، وخلق بيئة استيعابية للآثار الإيجابية غير المباشرة لرأس المال المُنتج.

التنزيلات

تنزيل البيانات ليس متاحًا بعد.

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التنزيلات

منشور

2026-03-15

كيفية الاقتباس

Determinants of Economic Growth in a Resource-Dependent Economy: An Endogenous Approach to Libya (1990–2023) . (2026). مجلة العلوم الشاملة, 10(39), 1444-1455. https://doi.org/10.65405/xz15vf07