Political Division and Its Impact on Democratic Transition in Libya An Analytical Study of the Period 2011–2025

Abstract

This study examines the impact of political division on the trajectory of democratic transition in Libya since 2011, based on the premise that political division is the primary explanatory variable for understanding the stalled democratic transition, not merely a consequence of it. The study addresses the concept of political division and distinguishes it from polarization and political conflict. It then analyzes its forms and sources in the Libyan context, including institutional division, competition for legitimacy, multiple centers of power, regional and social dimensions, foreign interventions, and competition for public resources. The study also traces the evolution of the division from the initial transitional phase, through the 2014 crisis and the resulting competing authorities and institutions, to attempts at political settlement and the formation of a unified interim executive authority, and the continued dispute over the constitutional framework and national elections. The study concludes that political division has not only affected the democratic transition by disrupting elections, but has also had a more profound impact on the very conditions of democracy itself. This has weakened the legitimacy of institutions, diminished the effectiveness of the principle of peaceful transfer of power, undermined the rule of law, kept the security sector outside a unified national framework, increased the cost of political participation, and led to a decline in public confidence in the ability of elites and institutions to .achieve a stable transition.