Forecasting Future Demographic Shifts Among Rural Youth in the Sabratha Region: An Analytical Study Using the Markov Transition Matrix

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the future demographic trajectories of rural youth in the Sabratha region (aged 18-35) as a case study representing coastal rural areas in Libya experiencing high migration pressures. The research employs a quantitative approach utilizing Markov Chains to model transitions between three primary states: rural retention, urban migration (towards Sabratha city or Greater Tripoli), and international migration (via the southern European coastlines). A transition matrix reflecting local migration dynamics was constructed based on primary data derived from a specifically designed field questionnaire (a stratified random sample of 200 youth), alongside international organization reports and previous studies. The findings revealed significant fragility in rural stability rates, with a rural retention probability of only 0.55. Predictive simulations indicate that if current trends persist, the rural areas of Sabratha will face severe "demographic depletion" by 2040, with over 65% of the youth population concentrated in the "international migration" state in the long term (steady state). The Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) analysis revealed that cities act as transit hubs accelerating international migration, taking approximately 17 years from urban areas compared to 24 years from rural areas. The study concludes that spatial development interventions are crucial to enhance the "retention value" in the local rural areas, providing a quantitative model applicable to other rural regions in Libya.