Traffic Accidents Between Government and Driver Responsibility: A Statistical Study of Annual Traffic Crashes on the Coastal Road in Janzour, Libya
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65405/cmmygs45Keywords:
Traffic crashes; Annual traffic crashes; Road safety; Road factors; Driver factors; Pedestrian factors; Weather conditions; Traffic violations; Janzour; Libya.Abstract
Traffic crashes are among the major problems facing transportation systems because of their human, material, and economic consequences and the interaction of several contributing factors. This study analyzes annual traffic crashes on the coastal road in Janzour, Libya, and examines their relationship with road factors, driver factors, pedestrian factors, environmental and weather conditions, and traffic officers and traffic violations.
Annual data covering the period 2012–2025 were used. The annual number of traffic crashes was considered the dependent variable Y, while road factors X1, driver factors X2, pedestrian factors X3, environmental and weather conditions X4, and traffic officers and traffic violations X5 were considered independent variables. The statistical analysis included descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, the Phillips–Perron test, the Granger causality test, Ordinary Least Squares regression, and diagnostic tests.
The results revealed a very strong positive correlation between driver factors X2 and annual traffic crashes, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9284. The OLS model indicated that X2 was the most statistically significant variable, with a coefficient of 1.151507 and a p-value of 0.0001. The coefficient of determination was R2=0.898403, while the adjusted R2 was 0.853249. The diagnostic tests provided no clear statistical evidence of serial correlation or heteroscedasticity according to the tests applied. The Granger causality test did not provide sufficient evidence of direct temporal causality at the lags used.
The findings indicate that driver-related factors are the most statistically evident factor in the available data. However, this does not imply that drivers alone are responsible for traffic crashes, since road safety is a system involving road conditions, drivers, pedestrians, environmental and weather conditions, and traffic enforcement.
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