أثر تقلبات سعر الصرف على ميزان المدفوعات في ليبيا خلال الفترة (2011-2024م)

Abstract

The study aims to analyze the impact of fluctuations in the Libyan dinar exchange rate on the balance of payments during the period (2011–2024), in light of the political and economic transformations and the political, security, and economic instability that Libya has experienced since 2011. This period has been characterized by political, security, and economic disturbances, as well as fluctuations and occasional disruptions in oil production, all of which have directly affected the country’s monetary and financial stability.

The study is based on the hypothesis that fluctuations in the Libyan dinar exchange rate lead to imbalances in the balance of payments in Libya during the study period. The findings indicate that exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on the balance of payments, particularly the current account. These fluctuations have also led to increased import costs, external imbalances, and the erosion of external surpluses. Furthermore, the fragility of the Libyan economy and its heavy reliance on oil exports have amplified the impact of monetary shocks on the balance of payments.

The study recommends enhancing exchange rate stability and improving the sustainability of external balance through monetary and structural reforms, as well as the unification of monetary policy.